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USDA Supply-Demand update

Here are highlights from this morning's monthly supply-demand report. Al Kluis, of Kluis Commodities, discussed the report during a conference call hosted by the Minneapolis Grain Exchange.
John Hawkins 
Published: Feb 9, 2012


WHEAT: U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected lower this month. Exports are
raised 25 million bushels supported by the stronger-than-expected pace of sales and
shipments, particularly for competitively priced feed-quality wheat. Projected exports of Soft
Red Winter and White wheat are each raised 15 million bushels on strong demand from
Mexico and South Korea. Exports are also projected higher for Hard Red Winter wheat, up 5
million bushels, based on sales and shipments to date. Projected Hard Red Spring wheat
exports are lowered 10 million bushels as strong domestic premiums for spring wheat
continue to limit demand. Ending stocks for all wheat are projected 25 million bushels lower
at 845 million. Based on prices reported to date and the lower expected carryout, the
2011/12 projected season-average farm price is raised 20 cents on the bottom end of the
range to $7.15 to $7.45 per bushel.

COARSE GRAINS: U.S. feed grain ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected lower this
month as increases in corn and oats imports are more than offset by higher expected corn
exports. Projected corn and oats imports are raised 5 and 10 million bushels, respectively,
based on the strong pace of shipments during the most recently reported September-
November quarter. U.S. corn exports are projected 50 million bushels higher with reduced
supplies in Argentina and recent increases in both sales and shipments. Corn ending stocks
are projected 45 million bushels lower at 801 million. The projected range for the season
average farm corn price is narrowed 10 cents on both ends of the range to $5.80 to $6.60
per bushel.

OILSEEDS: U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2011/12 are unchanged this month,
leaving ending stocks at 275 million bushels. Soybean exports are projected at 1.275 billion
bushels, down 226 million from last year. Although soybean export commitments through
January trail last year’s pace by more than 226 million bushels, lower soybean crop forecasts
and reduced export projections for Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay are expected to be offset
by additional U.S. sales and exports during the second half of the marketing year.
The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2011/12 is narrowed to $11.10 to $12.30
per bushel compared with $10.95 to $12.45 last month. Soybean oil prices are forecast at
50.5 to 54.5 cents per pound, and soybean meal prices are projected at $290 to $320 per short
ton, both unchanged from last month.


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