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Drought, too much rain may affect South American crops

Phil Corzine is general manager of South American Soy, a global production management and investment company.
Compiled by staff 
Published: Feb 10, 2012
I’ll start with what everyone is asking -- how big is the South American crop going to be? I don’t have a number, but here are some things I know:

Brazil’s southern states of Parana and Rio Grande do Sul have been severely affected by the drought. I think both corn and soybean yields in those states will be down 25 to 40 percent. Argentina is in the same situation and should have some significant reductions in yields as well.

Northern Brazil has had plenty of rain -- at times too much. At the moment, I expect most of the northern Brazilian states will end up in the average-to-above-average range, but too many cloudy days could take the top off of these yields.

I also believe there is a bias to the high side for yield projections from both the government and private companies in Brazil, and I think we’ll see gradually decreasing production numbers as time progresses.

The crops at our farms are advancing nicely. At our Fatima farm, we continue to keep the mela disease managed with fungicides -- some fields may require five applications before we finish. These 1,360 acres of beans will mature first; harvest probably will start about March 20.

The 2,300 acres of beans near Alvorada, Tocantins, were planted last and are just about ready to start flowering. We’re hoping for continued timely rains for the next six weeks to finish these beans out.

At our owned farms near Araguacu, the 1,330 acres of soybeans and 220 of corn look excellent. I think these yields will exceed last year’s.

Some of our early beans should be ready to harvest in late March.

Speaking of harvest, we are still working on contracts for our harvesting services. Our best quote to date is $27 per acre, plus fuel.
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Phil Corzine is general manager of South American Soy, a global production management and investment company. His e-mail address is pcorzine@agpage.com.


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