- IL Wheat Forum 2012
IL Wheat Forum 2012 Don Obert, wheat breeder, and Ken McClintock, regional sales manager with Limagrain Cereal Seeds at Illinois Wheat Forum in Mt. Vernon Friday. (Photo by Rita Frazer, RFD Radio) - IL Wheat Forum 2012
IL Wheat Forum 2012 Dave Devore and Carl Schwinke of Dormer Milling Company of Teutopolis at the Illinois Wheat Forum in Mt. Vernon Friday. (Photo by Rita Frazer, RFD Radio)
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Consultant: Corn could replace wheat acres in Southern IL
Farmers in Illinois last fall seeded fewer winter wheat acres than in the fall of 2010.
Dan Grant
Published: Feb 13, 2012
Wheat acres in the state, mostly located in Southern Illinois, currently total 660,000 compared to 800,000 a year ago.
And Louis Aldag, a farm consultant and owner of Aldag and Associates in Mt. Vernon, believes he knows the reason for a decline in wheat acres despite an adequate window to plant last fall.
“I think there will be more corn if the weather lets us,” said Aldag, who last week was a featured speaker at the Winter Wheat Forum in Mt. Vernon hosted by the Illinois Wheat Association.
University of Illinois projections suggest corn-after-soybeans currently offer the best operator and land return ($578 per acre in Central Illinois) followed by corn after-corn ($510) and soybeans after two years of corn ($425).
“For 2012, the most profitable crop appears to be corn following soybeans,” Aldag said.
In fact, research suggests corn has been the most profitable crop in the state five of the past 10 years. Two years beans were the most profitable crop and three years a double crop of wheat and beans was most profitable.
“If you do wheat (in the fall), you’ve got to have a second source of income,” Aldag said.
A recent survey of 24 market analysts conducted by Reuters news service projected U.S. farmers this spring will plant 94.2 million acres of corn, which would produce a record crop of 13.8 billion bushels based on a trend-line yield of 161 bushels per acre.
The survey also projected U.S. farmers this spring will plant 75.3 million acres of soybeans, which would be up slightly from last year.
Long-term, however, the wheat-soybean rotation may be more competitive compared to corn if prices moderate.
This year the U of I projected corn prices will average $5.40 per bushel but long term prices are projected to average $4.50 for corn, $5.50 for wheat, and $10.50 for beans.
“Wheat acres dropped off (to a record-low 330,000 in 2009/10) and have come back a bit,” Aldag said. “A lot of it depends on planting weather and price expectations.”
The majority of the wheat crop in the state (75 percent) was rated in good to excellent condition through the end of January, 22 percent was fair, and just 3 percent was poor.
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